The Stark Reality for the F*cked Conservatives

UK Parliament, with a pinkish red, as illustrated by AI

Since their catastrophic defeat in the local and mayoral elections, there has been much debate about the future of the Tory Party. And there will be much more, including narratives peddled in the media that the Conservatives should lunge even further to the right.

I will set out the likely outcome if the current parliamentary Conservative Party were to take various different paths. This analysis is based on a strong grounding in quantitative approaches, social scientific training and several years as a journalist observing politics.

My findings follow. I have tried to avoid too much technical jargon:

If Rishi Sunak stays in place and carries on regardless, the Tory Party will be fucked.

If Rishi Sunak stays in place and lunges to the right, to prevent Reform UK from nabbing Tory votes, the Tory Party will be fucked.

If Rishi Sunak stays in place and shifts the party towards the centre, to win back more moderate Tory voters, he will drive more voters to Reform — and the Tory Party will be fucked. That isn’t because Reform will win many (or any)…